by Chris Peterson » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:56 pm
biddie68 wrote:Is it predicted that the Perseids will eventually all burn up? And, if so, in how many years?
All meteor showers are short lived in terms of geological time. They are caused by active comets which have Earth-crossing or near Earth-crossing orbits, and short periods (200 years or less). Such comets have a relatively short period of activity (typically a few thousand years before they stop outgassing), and these inner system orbits are not very stable, so they are likely to be shifted out of proximity with the Earth. Once a comet stops producing debris, what remains in orbit disperses over time.
It's difficult to predict the exact future of the Perseids. It's unlikely this shower will be around in a few thousand years. But it might last longer. The parent body is in a Jupiter resonant orbit which makes it more stable, and is very large, meaning it has a lot of material to outgas. Certainly, though, the shower won't persist longer than hundreds of thousands of years. (Almost none of the material burns up as meteors, because only a tiny fraction encounters the Earth. Most will end up decaying into the Sun.)
[quote="biddie68"]Is it predicted that the Perseids will eventually all burn up? And, if so, in how many years?[/quote]
All meteor showers are short lived in terms of geological time. They are caused by active comets which have Earth-crossing or near Earth-crossing orbits, and short periods (200 years or less). Such comets have a relatively short period of activity (typically a few thousand years before they stop outgassing), and these inner system orbits are not very stable, so they are likely to be shifted out of proximity with the Earth. Once a comet stops producing debris, what remains in orbit disperses over time.
It's difficult to predict the exact future of the Perseids. It's unlikely this shower will be around in a few thousand years. But it might last longer. The parent body is in a Jupiter resonant orbit which makes it more stable, and is very large, meaning it has a lot of material to outgas. Certainly, though, the shower won't persist longer than hundreds of thousands of years. (Almost none of the material burns up as meteors, because only a tiny fraction encounters the Earth. Most will end up decaying into the Sun.)