APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

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Expand view Topic review: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Guest » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:31 pm

sytheblackwolfe wrote:My apologies to Bruce ...
I wasn't in need of an apology, but thanks.

Bruce

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by sytheblackwolfe » Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:43 pm

My apologies to Bruce and everyone else; I didn't make myself clear. The point I was trying to make is that if we are already picking up the dust and such from these objects as meteor showers, then an actual collision with a larger body is really inevitable at some point in the future. It may take millions of years for it to happen, but we can be certain that a collision will happen. Unless, as you say, Bruce, we solve the two part problem you described so well.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by BDanielMayfield » Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:40 am

RocketRon, its a two part problem: 1) Find the potential impactors far enough ahead of the impact that 2) a mission/method can be deployed soon enough to deal with the threat. We're not there yet, but we could be, if we were determined enough.

Bruce

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by RocketRon » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:05 am

BDanielMayfield wrote:[
What we were discussing is large impactors causing mass casualties.
Bruce
If you look at the large number of fairly large craters scattered around planet Earth, including some monster ones,
then the likelyhood of more such impacts is 100%, as stated.
But when is another matter, probability is a rather random event.

As for man having the 'tools' to do anything about it, that is also another matter.
Wasn't there a conference just recently about how to deal with such things. ?
Did they actually come to any resolution ?
Any committee involved in this will likely still be discussing as we get hit for six. !!

And, if we only get a few days notice of such an impact occurring, thats not enough time to organise anything,
except maybe a mass panic ?

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by BDanielMayfield » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:38 pm

sytheblackwolfe wrote:I'm a very amateur astronomer, and making my first visit back here since 2015, but even so I'd agree with Chris. After all, don't we have several thousand "micro-collisions" with the dust and rock particles these objects shed each year, better known as meteor showers? Or am I way off base here?
What we were discussing is large impactors causing mass casualties.

Bruce

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by heehaw » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:22 pm

If this object broke in two, we'd have two half-asteroids!

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by sytheblackwolfe » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:01 pm

I'm a very amateur astronomer, and making my first visit back here since 2015, but even so I'd agree with Chris. After all, don't we have several thousand "micro-collisions" with the dust and rock particles these objects shed each year, better known as meteor showers? Or am I way off base here?

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:01 pm

BDanielMayfield wrote:
Chris Peterson wrote:
DL MARTIN wrote:CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?
With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.
As even us puny humans will soon have the tools and skills needed to predict and then prevent such impacts your 100% prediction seems a bit overstated.
There will be asteroids hitting the Earth long after there are any humans around to do anything about them. So yes, 100%.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by BDanielMayfield » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:46 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
DL MARTIN wrote:CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?
With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.
As even us puny humans will soon have the tools and skills needed to predict and then prevent such impacts your 100% prediction seems a bit overstated.

Bruce

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by ta152h0 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:33 pm

this is why I am fascinated by cameras turned on spacecraft ever since i saw the first one on a V2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZxNbtb8tDA

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by ta152h0 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:06 pm

Two lobed ?, and this is the third one ? And another one had a little friend orbiting . Maybe we are looking at primordial planet building process, over a few bailion years.. Melt a little ice and refreeze it immediately after. Or not !

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by jisles » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:01 pm

Here's the movie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usPrwjyggEM

John

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:39 pm

neufer wrote:
.
DL MARTIN wrote:
CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?
If a thousand of these sorts of things were to pass by then there would be about a 1% that one of them would actually hit the Earth... but few of those chance hits would occur over densely populated areas.
There are approximately 1000 asteroids larger than 1 km which are in Earth-crossing orbits, most of which have periods of just a few years. So an object this size crosses our orbit every few days, although it is much rarer for them to do so when we're near that spot in our orbit.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by neufer » Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:28 pm

.
DL MARTIN wrote:
CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?
If a thousand of these sorts of things were to pass by then there would be about a 1% that one of them would actually hit the Earth... but few of those chance hits would occur over densely populated areas.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:04 pm

ygmarchi wrote:The shape reminds closely of comet 67/P.

For the rest, the resolution of attained of an object 1.8 million kms far, is just stunning.
Worth noting is that this isn't a direct image, as we'd get optically. It's a computerized reconstruction- a shape model- based on illuminating the body with a complex radio signal (typically modulating pulse rate, frequency, and polarization) and then analyzing those characteristics, as well as Doppler components, in the echoed signal and generating a probabilistic image mathematically. It's a bit analogous to computed tomography (as with MRIs).

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:57 pm

RocketRon wrote:And its orbit is ??
Will we see it again....
Its orbital period is about three years. But we won't see it this close again for a few centuries.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:48 pm

JohnD wrote:Should we forget our image of asteroids, or anything smaller than ?10kms in diameter as ovoid in shape?
Our model for the typical example of such bodies is a rubble pile- a loosely bound group of boulders and rocks, often with a collision history (which probably explains the prevalence of lobes), and likely not very stable in terms of shape, as it loses or shifts material due to spin-up and tidal perturbations. Rather than seeing them as "ovoid", we should simply recognize "not typically spherical".

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:42 pm

Sicnarf wrote:That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.
Millions of such objects pass within that distance for any that actually collide. Indeed, there are millions of bodies that pass even closer than the Moon for any that actually collide.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Chris Peterson » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:38 pm

DL MARTIN wrote:CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?
With this object, on this pass? Zero. By some object at some time in the future? 100%.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by BDanielMayfield » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:49 pm

Sicnarf wrote:That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.
Then we're 'near missed' by by Mars, Venus, Mercury and heck, even the Sun almost every to several times each year. Get a grip on reality.

Bruce

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by neufer » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:20 pm

Sicnarf wrote:
That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_miss_(safety) wrote:
The phrase "near miss" should not to be confused with the phrases "nearly a miss" or "they nearly missed" which would imply a collision.

Synonymous phrases to "near miss" are "close call", or "nearly a collision".

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by Sicnarf » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:57 am

That is not a near miss, it is a near hit. Anything inside one AU is too close for comfort.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by ygmarchi » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:02 am

The shape reminds closely of comet 67/P.

For the rest, the resolution of attained of an object 1.8 million kms far, is just stunning.

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by JohnD » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:14 am

That looks just like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, Rosetta's duck-like comet!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZQy3-zXq-M

Should we forget our image of asteroids, or anything smaller than ?10kms in diameter as ovoid in shape?

John

Re: APOD: Asteroid 2014 JO25 (2017 Apr 20)

by DL MARTIN » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:32 am

CBC news reported that if this object hit Canada it would wipe out an area equivalent to Toronto - Ottawa - Montreal. That would have significant global repercussions. What are the chances of this happening?

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