by neufer » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:46 pm
orin stepanek wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:35 pm
ATLAS comes; I hope it is available for me to see as it approaches the sun! The only one I have seen was Hale Bopp! I may have seen others without knowing what they were!
- Are you running out of gas, crumbling and fading as we speak
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2019_Y4_(ATLAS) wrote:
Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC said:
- "Comet ATLAS continues to be much brighter than expected. Some predictions for its peak brightness now border on the absurd. If it has a big nucleus with large stones of frozen gas, then yes; We could get a very bright Comet. Right now the Comet is releasing huge amounts of its frozen volatiles or gases. That's why it is brightening so fast, otherwise comet ATLAS might run out of gas, crumbling and fading as it approaches the Sun.
Current best estimates of the comet peak brightness in May range from magnitude +1 to -5. If the comet hits the high end of that range, a bit brighter than Venus. Comet MC Naught or C/2006 P1 performed that very trick 13 years ago. On January 13, 2007, it swooped passed the sun shining at a brilliant magnitude of -5.5. The absurdly-bright comet was visible at high on noon with its tail jutting across the blue sky."
Battams is not optimistic, though, he added:
- "My personal intuition is that comet ATLAS is over archiving, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it fade rapidly and possibly even disintegrate before reaching the Sun. ATLAS is a bit of a wildcard, and there's a spectrum of possibilities as it nears the sun. At one extreme, it could simply crumble away in the coming weeks and at another extreme it could brighten up tremendously. It has an unusually small perihelion distance inside of Mercury's orbit, which bodes well for getting those frozen gasses fizzing furiously. If it can survive the blast furnace of the solar heating, it could put on a good show. However, no one expected the show to start more than two months before its perihelion. Comet ATLAS is already heating up. Outburst are possible in the upcoming weeks as new veins of volatile material are exposed by intensifying sunlight. The worldwide Comet Observation Database shows it jumping from magnitude +17 in early February to +8 in mid-March,4000 times brighter since its discovery. It could become visible to the naked eye in early April at this rate. If it doesn't fly apart first, it could become one of the brightest comets in years. However, the fate of the comet is still unclear. We do not know if it will ever return to our astronomical neighborhood again. He added, we have a number of space telescopes designed to view objects very close to sun. The Heliospheric Image on NASA's STEREO spacecraft will get a great view of it from mid-May through early June of 2020. So, we might be able to observe ATLAS's tail interacting with the Solar wind and outflows as well as any potentially breakup events. There's also WISPR camera on NASA's Parker Solar Probe. We will potentially be able to view ATLAS from WISPR camera concurrently with the STEREO observations. But it would require a non-standard pointing configuration for us, so the operation teams are currently assessing our options."
The comet has also been founded to be a hundred times bigger and brighter than what astronomers were originally estimating. By the time Comet ATLAS approaches the sun in late May it could become quite bright indeed. At present while in the vicinity of our neighbouring planet, ATLAS shines as an eighth magnitude fuzzy star, which is barely visible to the naked eye from any distant or remote location but can be observable through mid-sized backyard telescopes. Barely visible some three weeks ago, it has now surged in brightness and will continue to do so as it approaches the centre of our solar system. The comet has also been found to be hundreds of times bigger and brighter than what astronomers had originally estimated, possibly signaling an explosion or outburst of dust and gas in the comet's core or nucleus. If that continues to occur on its way to perihelion or if it brightens at a rate of 0.50 magnitude per day, which is double the current rate, then the comet may become the brightest comet in human history and be visible during daylight, which is very commonly seen for Kreutz sungrazer comets.>>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_London wrote:
<<The Great Plague, lasting from 1665 to 1666, was the last major epidemic of the bubonic plague to occur in England. The Great Plague killed an estimated 100,000 people—almost a quarter of London's population—in 18 months. During the winter of 1664, a bright comet was to be seen in the sky and the people of London were fearful, wondering what evil event it portended:>>
- ....................................................................
- History of the Plague in London by Daniel Defoe
A blazing star or comet appeared for several months before the plague, as there did, the year after, another a little before the fire. The old women, and the phlegmatic hypochondriac part of the other sex (whom I could almost call old women too), remarked, especially afterward, though not till both those judgments were over, that those two comets passed directly over the city, and that so very near the houses that it was plain they imported something peculiar to the city alone; that the comet before the pestilence was of a faint, dull, languid color, and its motion very heavy, solemn, and slow, but that the comet before the fire was bright and sparkling, or, as others said, flaming, and its motion swift and furious; and that, accordingly, one foretold a heavy judgment, slow but severe, terrible, and frightful, as was the plague, but the other foretold a stroke, sudden, swift, and fiery, as was the conflagration. Nay, so particular some people were, that, as they looked upon that comet preceding the fire, they fancied that they not only saw it pass swiftly and fiercely, and could perceive the motion with their eye, but even they heard it; that it made a rushing, mighty noise, fierce and terrible, though at a distance, and but just perceivable.
I saw both these stars, and, I must confess, had had so much of the common notion of such things in my head, that I was apt to look upon them as the forerunners and warnings of God's judgments, and, especially when the plague had followed the first, I yet saw another of the like kind, I could not but say, God had not yet sufficiently scourged the city.
[quote="orin stepanek" post_id=300519 time=1584794114 user_id=100812]
ATLAS comes; I hope it is available for me to see as it approaches the sun! The only one I have seen was Hale Bopp! I may have seen others without knowing what they were! :roll:[/quote]
[list]Are you running out of gas, crumbling and fading as we speak :?: [/list]
[quote=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2019_Y4_(ATLAS)]
[float=right][img3=During January to March 2020, the comet is located in the constellation Ursa Major. On April when it gets dark it will be visible halfway up in the north-northwest sky and on June it will be visible on Orion constellation in the north-northeast sky at morning and potentially visible with the naked eye.]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Comet_2019_Y4_ATLAS-sky.png/1920px-Comet_2019_Y4_ATLAS-sky.png[/img3][/float]
Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC said:
[list] "[b][i][color=#0000FF]Comet ATLAS continues to be much brighter than expected. [u]Some predictions for its peak brightness now border on the absurd.[/u] If it has a big nucleus with large stones of frozen gas, then yes; We could get a very bright Comet. Right now the Comet is releasing huge amounts of its frozen volatiles or gases. That's why it is brightening so fast, otherwise comet ATLAS might run out of gas, crumbling and fading as it approaches the Sun.
[u]Current best estimates of the comet peak brightness in May range from magnitude +1 to -5. If the comet hits the high end of that range, a bit brighter than Venus. Comet MC Naught or C/2006 P1 performed that very trick 13 years ago. On January 13, 2007, it swooped passed the sun shining at a brilliant magnitude of -5.5. The absurdly-bright comet was visible at high on noon with its tail jutting across the blue sky.[/u][/color][/i][/b]"[/list]
Battams is not optimistic, though, he added:
[list] "[i][color=#0000FF]My personal intuition is that comet ATLAS is over archiving, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it fade rapidly and possibly even disintegrate before reaching the Sun. ATLAS is a bit of a wildcard, and there's a spectrum of possibilities as it nears the sun. At one extreme, it could simply crumble away in the coming weeks and at another extreme it could brighten up tremendously. It has an unusually small perihelion distance inside of Mercury's orbit, which bodes well for getting those frozen gasses fizzing furiously. If it can survive the blast furnace of the solar heating, it could put on a good show. However, no one expected the show to start more than two months before its perihelion. Comet ATLAS is already heating up. Outburst are possible in the upcoming weeks as new veins of volatile material are exposed by intensifying sunlight. The worldwide Comet Observation Database shows it jumping from magnitude +17 in early February to +8 in mid-March,4000 times brighter since its discovery. It could become visible to the naked eye in early April at this rate. If it doesn't fly apart first, it could become one of the brightest comets in years. However, the fate of the comet is still unclear. We do not know if it will ever return to our astronomical neighborhood again. He added, we have a number of space telescopes designed to view objects very close to sun. The Heliospheric Image on NASA's STEREO spacecraft will get a great view of it from mid-May through early June of 2020. So, we might be able to observe ATLAS's tail interacting with the Solar wind and outflows as well as any potentially breakup events. There's also WISPR camera on NASA's Parker Solar Probe. We will potentially be able to view ATLAS from WISPR camera concurrently with the STEREO observations. But it would require a non-standard pointing configuration for us, so the operation teams are currently assessing our options.[/color][/i]"[/list]
The comet has also been founded to be a hundred times bigger and brighter than what astronomers were originally estimating. By the time Comet ATLAS approaches the sun in late May it could become quite bright indeed. At present while in the vicinity of our neighbouring planet, ATLAS shines as an eighth magnitude fuzzy star, which is barely visible to the naked eye from any distant or remote location but can be observable through mid-sized backyard telescopes. Barely visible some three weeks ago, it has now surged in brightness and will continue to do so as it approaches the centre of our solar system. The comet has also been found to be hundreds of times bigger and brighter than what astronomers had originally estimated, possibly signaling an explosion or outburst of dust and gas in the comet's core or nucleus. If that continues to occur on its way to perihelion or if it brightens at a rate of 0.50 magnitude per day, which is double the current rate, then the comet may become the brightest comet in human history and be visible during daylight, which is very commonly seen for Kreutz sungrazer comets.>>[/quote][quote=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_London]
<<The Great Plague, lasting from 1665 to 1666, was the last major epidemic of the bubonic plague to occur in England. The Great Plague killed an estimated 100,000 people—almost a quarter of London's population—in 18 months. During the winter of 1664, a bright comet was to be seen in the sky and the people of London were fearful, wondering what evil event it portended:>>
[float=right][img3=""]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Great_plague_of_london-1665.jpg/330px-Great_plague_of_london-1665.jpg[/img3][/float][list]....................................................................
[list] [size=130]History of the Plague in London by Daniel Defoe[/size][/list]
[i][color=#0000FF]A blazing star or comet appeared for several months before the plague, as there did, the year after, another a little before the fire. The old women, and the phlegmatic hypochondriac part of the other sex (whom I could almost call old women too), remarked, especially afterward, though not till both those judgments were over, that those two comets passed directly over the city, and that so very near the houses that it was plain they imported something peculiar to the city alone; that the comet before the pestilence was of a faint, dull, languid color, and its motion very heavy, solemn, and slow, but that the comet before the fire was bright and sparkling, or, as others said, flaming, and its motion swift and furious; and that, accordingly, one foretold a heavy judgment, slow but severe, terrible, and frightful, as was the plague, but the other foretold a stroke, sudden, swift, and fiery, as was the conflagration. Nay, so particular some people were, that, as they looked upon that comet preceding the fire, they fancied that they not only saw it pass swiftly and fiercely, and could perceive the motion with their eye, but even they heard it; that it made a rushing, mighty noise, fierce and terrible, though at a distance, and but just perceivable.
I saw both these stars, and, I must confess, had had so much of the common notion of such things in my head, that I was apt to look upon them as the forerunners and warnings of God's judgments, and, especially when the plague had followed the first, I yet saw another of the like kind, I could not but say, God had not yet sufficiently scourged the city.[/color][/i][/list][/quote]