Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

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saturno2
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Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by saturno2 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm

For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)

BDanielMayfield
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Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by BDanielMayfield » Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:42 pm

saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
You live in a very volcanic, earthquake prone and mountainous area. (In or near the Andes Mountains, no?) Also, the weather in recent times is getting more extreme all over. Therefore I'd bet that most scientists would brush off your observations as mere random chance coincidences. But otoh animals have been documented acting strangely before earthquakes...

So, with your experiences saturno2, I'd stay clear of volcanoes today.
"Happy are the peaceable ... "

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Chris Peterson
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Location: Guffey, Colorado, USA

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by Chris Peterson » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:10 pm

saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
The ability to detect patterns where there are none is one of the most powerful human biases.
Chris

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Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

BDanielMayfield
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Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:24 am
AKA: Bruce
Location: East Idaho

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by BDanielMayfield » Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:31 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:10 pm
saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
The ability to detect patterns where there are none is one of the most powerful human biases.
See, that’s just what I’d expect most scientists to attribute saturno2’s observations to as an explanation. And, I’ll admit, he (Chris) is probably correct. But if there’s a volcano that erupts in his area before his nights return to normal temperatures, then there’d be something to investigate at least.

Bruce
"Happy are the peaceable ... "

BDanielMayfield
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Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:24 am
AKA: Bruce
Location: East Idaho

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by BDanielMayfield » Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:33 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:10 pm
The ability to detect patterns where there are none is one of the most powerful human biases.
I agree. But, without our ability to detect patterns where would science be?

Bruce
"Happy are the peaceable ... "

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Chris Peterson
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Location: Guffey, Colorado, USA

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by Chris Peterson » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:32 pm

BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:31 pm
Chris Peterson wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:10 pm
saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
The ability to detect patterns where there are none is one of the most powerful human biases.
See, that’s just what I’d expect most scientists to attribute saturno2’s observations to as an explanation. And, I’ll admit, he (Chris) is probably correct. But if there’s a volcano that erupts in his area before his nights return to normal temperatures, then there’d be something to investigate at least.
Well, people have looked for patterns between weather, tides, and other potential triggers and seismic and volcanic activity. Using statistical tools that can pick out valid correlations far better than we can using our intuition. And AFAIK, there are some weak correlations between both tides and rainfall for certain kinds of earthquakes. I haven't heard of any connection to volcanic eruptions, though.
Chris

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Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

User avatar
Chris Peterson
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Posts: 14006
Joined: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:13 pm
Location: Guffey, Colorado, USA

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by Chris Peterson » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:33 pm

BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:33 pm
Chris Peterson wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:10 pm
The ability to detect patterns where there are none is one of the most powerful human biases.
I agree. But, without our ability to detect patterns where would science be?
If we were't super sensitive to patterns, we probably wouldn't even be here. For most of our existence, detecting false correlations was mostly harmless, whereas missing real ones could easily be fatal.
Chris

*****************************************
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

saturno2
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Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by saturno2 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:42 am

BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:42 pm
saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
You live in a very volcanic, earthquake prone and mountainous area. (In or near the Andes Mountains, no?) Also, the weather in recent times is getting more extreme all over. Therefore I'd bet that most scientists would brush off your observations as mere random chance coincidences. But otoh animals have been documented acting strangely before earthquakes...

So, with your experiences saturno2, I'd stay clear of volcanoes today.
Yes, I now live near the Andes, far from the volcanoes, but not for
Fear of them
I was near to the epicenter of the earthquake of Abril 2016
In Manabi Ecuador ( 7.8 degrees Richter )

BDanielMayfield
Don't bring me down
Posts: 1788
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:24 am
AKA: Bruce
Location: East Idaho

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by BDanielMayfield » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:16 am

saturno2 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:42 am
BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:42 pm
saturno2 wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:44 pm
For several years I have observed that before a volcanic eruption
In my zone, the environment temperature becomes colder than
Normal ( very cold in the night )
And, before a strong earthquake the environment temperature
Goes up more of the normal ( very hot in the day )
I do not know if this observation ca be valid for monitor
These events.
Right now it has felt an unusual cold at night.
( possible volcanic eruption in my zone)
You live in a very volcanic, earthquake prone and mountainous area. (In or near the Andes Mountains, no?) Also, the weather in recent times is getting more extreme all over. Therefore I'd bet that most scientists would brush off your observations as mere random chance coincidences. But otoh animals have been documented acting strangely before earthquakes...

So, with your experiences saturno2, I'd stay clear of volcanoes today.
Yes, I now live near the Andes, far from the volcanoes, but not for
Fear of them
I was near to the epicenter of the earthquake of Abril 2016
In Manabi Ecuador ( 7.8 degrees Richter )
I was trying to come up with plausible cause / effect links for your experiences saturno2. The only theory I can come up with is that volcanic out gassing prior to an earthquake or an eruption might raise the humidity. This could make days seem hotter and nights colder.

Bruce
"Happy are the peaceable ... "

saturno2
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Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 10:05 pm

Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by saturno2 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:15 pm

Year 1999. I was in Quito - Ecuador, that is next to the volcano Pichincha.
For 3 or 4 days change the weather. It felt an intense cold in the night ( inusual)
There was 2 eruptions of the volcano, that was inactive for long time.
The second eruption of the volcano ejected steam, gas and ash that
Formed a column of 12 km in height.

saturno2
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Re: Weather- volcanoes- earthquakes

Post by saturno2 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:46 pm

Year 2018. Went up the temperature of the environment in the day,
For 1 week. Near where I live there were 3 earthquekes of 3.5, 4, y 5
Degrees Richter. ( In different points)
Then increase the temperature more in the day for about 5 days.
There were solar rays too strongs ( inusual )
I thought in a a strong earthquake in my zone. It was not so.
It ocurred in Indonesia.
Earthquake and tsunami in Palu Indonesia