Predict When Earth Loses Northern Polar Ice Cap

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BDanielMayfield
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Predict When Earth Loses Northern Polar Ice Cap

Post by BDanielMayfield » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Each year the low point in Arctic ocean sea ice occurs in late summer/early fall, normally in the month of September. As the pace of global warming accelerates (especially in the Northern hemisphere, and most especially in the arctic) in which upcoming year will the Arctic ocean be essentially ice free?

Since even many experts have been surprised by record breaking melt of late, I'm going to guess that Earth's permanent northern polar ice cap will be gone in 2026.

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neufer
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Re: Predict When Earth Loses Northern Polar Ice Cap

Post by neufer » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:46 pm


BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Each year the low point in Arctic ocean sea ice occurs in late summer/early fall, normally in the month of September. As the pace of global warming accelerates (especially in the Northern hemisphere, and most especially in the arctic) in which upcoming year will the Arctic ocean be essentially ice free? Since even many experts have been surprised by record breaking melt of late, I'm going to guess that Earth's permanent northern polar ice cap will be gone in 2026.
  • 2036 (depending upon Trump's reelection).
:arrow: Monthly averages from January 1979 - January 2014. Data source via the Polar Science Center (University of Washington). Data visualisation by Andy Lee Robinson.
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Chris Peterson
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Re: Predict When Earth Loses Northern Polar Ice Cap

Post by Chris Peterson » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:33 pm

BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:13 pm
Each year the low point in Arctic ocean sea ice occurs in late summer/early fall, normally in the month of September. As the pace of global warming accelerates (especially in the Northern hemisphere, and most especially in the arctic) in which upcoming year will the Arctic ocean be essentially ice free?

Since even many experts have been surprised by record breaking melt of late, I'm going to guess that Earth's permanent northern polar ice cap will be gone in 2026.
Models seem to place it between 2020 and 2040. My guess is that it's likely to be closer to the former, as our models seem to pretty consistently underestimate warming, ice cover, and other factors stemming from global warming. 2026 wouldn't surprise me.
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neufer
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Re: Predict When Earth Loses Northern Polar Ice Cap

Post by neufer » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:33 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:33 pm
BDanielMayfield wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:13 pm

Each year the low point in Arctic ocean sea ice occurs in late summer/early fall, normally in the month of September. As the pace of global warming accelerates (especially in the Northern hemisphere, and most especially in the arctic) in which upcoming year will the Arctic ocean be essentially ice free?

Since even many experts have been surprised by record breaking melt of late, I'm going to guess that Earth's permanent northern polar ice cap will be gone in 2026.
Models seem to place it between 2020 and 2040. My guess is that it's likely to be closer to the former, as our models seem to pretty consistently underestimate warming, ice cover, and other factors stemming from global warming. 2026 wouldn't surprise me.
  • Models also seem to pretty consistently underestimate Greenland glacial feedback from global warming:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU wrote:
Click to play embedded YouTube video.
This rare footage has gone on record as the largest glacier calving event ever captured on film, by the 2016 Guiness Book of World Records.

On May 28, 2008, Adam LeWinter and Director Jeff Orlowski filmed a historic breakup at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland. The calving event lasted for 75 minutes and the glacier retreated a full mile across a calving face three miles wide. The height of the ice is about 3,000 feet, 300-400 feet above water and the rest below water.

Footage produced by James Balog (http://jamesbalog.com) and the Extreme Ice Survey (http://extremeicesurvey.org)
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neufer
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Down the drain?

Post by neufer » Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:10 pm

https://lib-dbserver.princeton.edu/visual_materials/maps/websites/northwest-passage/mercator.htm wrote:

<<Born in Flanders, the great cartographer Gerhard Mercator spent most of his adult life in Duisburg, Germany, where he died in December 1594. The next year his son Rumold published the last of the three parts of his famous atlas, which contains this map. It is the first full map of the Arctic, an expansion of Mercator's inset of the area in his world map of 1569, here showing recent Northwest and Northeast Passage discoveries. In the east, S. Hugo Willoughbes land is named for Sir Hugh Willoughby (d. 1554), who, leading the English Company of Merchant Adventurers' three-ship expedition in 1553, became locked in the ice off the coast near Murmansk with two of his ships; Russian fishermen found the boats with their corpses the next year. Willem Barentsz (ca. 1550-1597), the Dutch navigator, while commanding three expeditions in search of a navigable passage to eastern Asia across the top of Europe and Russia, reached Novaya Zemlya and discovered Spitsbergen (1596). Fretum Forbosshers and Fretum Dauis, in the west, refer to discoveries of the Englishmen Martin Frobisher and John Davis in the 1570s and 1580s. The roundels in the corners contain the title and maps of the Shetland Islands, the mythical island of Frisland, and the Faeroe Islands. But the interesting feature, of course, is Mercator's depiction of the North Pole as a large magnetic rock, surrounded by four mountainous islands which are separated by four major rivers converging upon it. Mercator explained the source for his cartography in a 1577 letter to John Dee, an English mathematician and astrologer:

In the midst of the four countries is a Whirl-pool . . . into which there empty these four indrawing Seas which divide the North. And the water rushes round and descends into the earth just as if one were pouring it through a filter funnel. It is four degrees wide on every side of the Pole, that is to say eight degrees altogether. Except that right under the Pole there lies a bare rock in the midst of the Sea. Its circumference is almost 33 French miles, and it is all of magnetic stone. . . . This is word for word everything that I copied out of this author years ago. [E. G. R. Taylor, "A Letter Dated 1577 from Mercator to John Dee," in Imago Mundi 13 (1956), p. 60.]

The identity of the author cited by Mercator, a "Jacobus Cnoyen of Herzogenbusch," has never been established. Jodocus Hondius acquired the printing plates in 1604; later editions of the Hondius version of the map show the separation of Greenland and the re-drawing of polar coastlines, particularly in the Spitsbergen and Novaya Zemlya areas, as the demythologizing of the Arctic continued by explorers and whalers.>>
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