Calvin: Change to the Night Sky

[bystander]

Astronomy Prof, Student Predict Explosion That Will Change the Night Sky
Calvin University | 2017 Jan 06

Calvin College professor Larry Molnar and his students along with colleagues from Apache Point Observatory (Karen Kinemuchi) and the University of Wyoming (Henry Kobulnicky) are predicting a change to the night sky that will be visible to the naked eye. ...

Molnar’s prediction is that a binary star (two stars orbiting each other) he is monitoring will merge and explode in 2022, give or take a year; at which time the star will increase its brightness ten thousand fold, becoming one of the brighter stars in the heavens for a time. The star will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognizable Northern Cross star pattern. ...

The Red Nova Prediction
Calvin University | 2016 Mar 15

Colliding stars will light up the night sky in 2022
Science News | 2017 Jan 06

Prediction of a Red Nova Outburst in KIC 9832227 - Lawrence A. Molnar et al

[rstevenson]

The second linked article says "Molnar is predicting that a star he is monitoring will explode between 2018 and 2020", which is not the same as what is said above or in the first linked article, "...explode in 2022, give or take a year". I suppose we'll notice either way, but I want to plan a party, so...

I downloaded the scientific paper preprint, which says "We estimate time of merger is the year 2022.2 ± 0.6". That's much more specific and will allow me to get in the firecrackers and sparklers at least, if not the dip.

Rob

[bystander]

The second linked article is from March of 2016. I'm assuming that his prediction has been refined since then.

[bystander]

Team of Researchers Challenge Bold Astronomical Prediction
Calvin University | 2018 Sep 07

Calvin College professor of astronomy Larry Molnar made a bold announcement in 2017—he and his team had identified a binary star in the constellation Cygnus, the Swan, that was a strong candidate to merge and explode in the near future. Known by its Kepler mission number, KIC 9832227, the pair of stars is about 1800 light years from Earth and has an orbit so close that it takes just 11 hours to go around once. That first-of-its-kind prediction caught the attention of an international audience, creating excitement within the scientific community and among the general public.

The interest led Molnar’s peers to dig deeper into the discovery, in essence doing what Molnar says is “good science”—scrupulously testing his prediction.

Now, 18 months later, a team of researchers led by Quentin Socia, a graduate student at San Diego State University, has published a paper in the Astrophysical Journal Letters reevaluating Molnar’s predicted merger, concluding it will not happen. And Molnar agrees with that assessment. ...

KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction ~ Quentin J Socia et al

• Astrophysical Journal Letters 864(2):L32 (10 Sep 2018) DOI: 10.3847/2041-8213/aadc0d