Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Find out the latest thinking about our universe.
Post Reply
User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Thu Sep 08, 2011 5:58 pm

Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon
Space.com | Leonard David | 2011 Sept 07
Heads up! That's the word from NASA today (Sept. 7) given the impending re-entry of a 6.5-ton satellite through Earth's atmosphere.

The huge Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in an uncontrolled fall in late September or early October. Much of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during re-entry, but some pieces are expected to make it intact to the ground, NASA officials said.

The U.S. space agency will be taking measures to inform the public about the pieces of the spacecraft that are expected to survive re-entry.

"It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed," NASA said in a statement released today (Sept. 7). [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]

The satellite launched to Earth orbit in 1991 aboard NASA's space shuttle Discovery (STS-48) and was decommissioned on Dec. 14, 2005. It is 35 feet (10.7 meters) long and 15 feet (4.5 m) wide.

Small risk to public

One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).

"The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority," noted a NASA website dedicated to the re-entry. "Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry."

Nonetheless, there is a chance that pieces of debris from the satellite will crash in areas accessible to the public.

According to NASA, on UARS re-entry day, "if you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance."

NASA will host a press conference on Friday (Sept. 9) to discuss the anticipated re-entry.

Public to be informed

The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.

NASA plans to post updates weekly until about four days before the anticipated re-entry. The agency will then share daily updates until about 24 hours before re-entry, when it will begin even more frequent postings.

The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, which works around the clock to detect, identify and track all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.

Debris in Earth orbit, including broken satellites, spent rocket stages and other trash, is a growing problem, both because of the threat it will collide with working spacecraft, and the chance that it will re-enter Earth's atmosphere and crash in populated areas.

According to a recent National Research Council report, we have now reached a tipping point, called the Kessler Threshold, at which there is already enough orbital debris that even if no more were added, new debris will continually be created through collisions between existing objects.

UARS was used to study Earth's atmosphere by observing numerous chemical components through multiple instruments. Before it ended its scientific life in 2005, UARS data marked the beginning of many long-term records for key chemicals in the atmosphere. The satellite also provided key information on the amount of light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths.

NASA Announces Media Teleconference About Satellite Re-Entry
NASA HQ | 2011 Sept 07
NASA will host a media teleconference at 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 9, to discuss the anticipated re-entry of the agency's decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Re-entry is expected late this month or early October.
...
UARS was launched Sept. 12, 1991, aboard space shuttle mission STS-48 and deployed on Sept. 15, 1991. It was the first multi-instrumented satellite to observe numerous chemical components of the atmosphere for better understanding of photochemistry. UARS data marked the beginning of many long-term records for key chemicals in the atmosphere. The satellite also provided key data on the amount of light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. UARS ceased its productive scientific life in 2005.

Dead NASA satellite will soon plummet to Earth
PhysOrg | Seth Borenstein , AP Science | 2011 Sept 08
NASA says one of its dead satellites will soon fall to Earth but there's very little chance that it will hit someone.

The space agency doesn't know when or where its 20-year-old satellite will drop. It will probably be in late September but could fall in October. And it could land anywhere south of Juneau, Alaska, and north of the tip of South America. NASA says there is only a 1 in 3,200 chance of satellite parts hitting someone.

Experts say don't worry. In the more than 50 years of the space age, no one has ever been hurt by falling space debris. The 6-ton satellite was used to monitor the atmosphere. Most of it will burn up during reentry. Only about 1,200 pounds of metal should survive.

©2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Falling Space Junk: The Facts About NASA's Doomed UARS Satellite
Space.com | 2011 Sept 08
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Space: Dead Satellite Will Fall to Earth By September's End

Post by bystander » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:01 pm

Dead Satellite Will Fall to Earth By September's End
Space.com | Clara Moskowitz | 2011 Sept 13
A defunct satellite poised to fall back to Earth will make its death plunge during the last week of September, NASA officials now say.

The spacecraft, an old NASA climate probe called the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), was decommissioned in 2005 and has been slowly losing altitude since. Soon, the 6 1/2-ton satellite will make a final uncontrolled plunge through Earth's atmosphere.

On Monday (Sept. 12), a NASA update stated that the satellite is now expected to plummet back to Earth during the last week of September. Previous estimates by NASA and the U.S. military, which is monitoring the hefty space junk, suggested the UARS satellite would fall sometime in late September or early October.

While most of UARS' huge bulk will burn up during re-entry, some pieces are expected to survive. NASA insists these will pose little risk to civilians on the ground, although there is a chance debris could impact a populated area.

This video simulation of the UARS satellite crash by the analytical firm Analytical Graphics Inc., shows how the satellite orbits Earth.

NASA officials say there is a 1-in-3,200 chance that a piece of UARS satellite debris could strike and injure a person on the ground. The most likely scenario is that the satellite falls somewhere over an ocean.

"Earth is big, the satellite is small; the chance of it hitting a person is very, very small," said Victoria Samson, the Washington Office Director of the Secure World Foundation, an organization dedicated to the peaceful use of outer space. "While the idea of something coming at you from outer space is unnerving, there are a lot more realistic threats we should be concerned about. The actual impact to any person is fairly minimal."

At this point, NASA cannot confirm the exact trajectory or time of the UARS satellite's plunge, which depend on solar weather, variations in Earth's gravitational field, and the orientation of the satellite. However, as UARS' re-entry draws near NASA should be able to offer more precise predictions.

The space agency first announced the spacecraft's impending dive last week. Since then, experts have been able to refine their tracking of the satellite, and confirmed its present orbit.

"As of Sept. 12, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 145 mi by 165 mi (235 km by 265 km)," NASA officials wrote in a statement.

The bus-size satellite is about 35 feet (10.7 meters) long and 15 feet (4.5 m) wide. And while it's too soon to know where the pieces of UARS will fall, an analysis suggests they will likely scatter within an area of 500 miles (800 kilometers) length.

NASA officials have said that should any of the 26 pieces of the UARS that are expected to survive re-entry fall near a populated area, the public should not touch the satellite debris. Instead, local law enforcement should be contacted. Any surviving UARS satellite debris cannot be kept or sold as they remain the property of the U.S. government, NASA officials said.

The $750 million UARS spacecraft was launched in 1991 aboard NASA's space shuttle Discovery to study ozone and other chemical compounds in Earth's atmosphere. Since that time, international standards and best practices for dealing with a spacecraft's end of life have been put in place.

"Now, they have to save enough fuel to either put the satellite in a graveyard orbit or guide it back in" to Earth in a controlled manner, Samson told SPACE.com. "That wasn't actually standard operating procedure back then."

For that reason, uncontrolled re-entry of large spacecraft like UARS are rare, though not unheard of, Samson said.
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
neufer
Vacationer at Tralfamadore
Posts: 18805
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:57 pm
Location: Alexandria, Virginia

UARS truly

Post by neufer » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:39 pm

___________ Cymbeline Act 4, Scene 2

CAIUS LUCIUS: Soft, ho! what trunk is here
  • Without his top? The ruin speaks that sometime
    It was a worthy building. How! a page!
    Or dead, or sleeping on him? But dead rather;
    For nature doth abhor to make his bed
    With the defunct, or sleep upon the dead.

___________ King Henry V Act 4, Scene 1

KING HENRY V: 'Tis good for men to love their present pains
  • Upon example; so the spirit is eased:
    And when the mind is quicken'd, out of doubt,
    The organs, though defunct and dead before,
    Break up their drowsy grave and newly move,
    With casted slough and fresh legerity.
Art Neuendorffer

User avatar
owlice
Guardian of the Codes
Posts: 8406
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 4:18 pm
Location: Washington, DC

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by owlice » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:08 pm

It's likely headed for Ocean City.
A closed mouth gathers no foot.

User avatar
neufer
Vacationer at Tralfamadore
Posts: 18805
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:57 pm
Location: Alexandria, Virginia

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by neufer » Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:21 pm

owlice wrote:
It's likely headed for Ocean City.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
Art Neuendorffer

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Fri Sep 16, 2011 9:28 pm

NASA: Satellite pieces to hit Earth in a week
Associated Press | via PhysOrg | 2011 Sept 16
U.S. space officials say they expect a dead satellite to fall to Earth in about a week.

NASA has been watching the 6-ton satellite closely. On Friday officials moved up their prediction for its arrival to Sept. 23, give or take a day.

NASA scientists have calculated the satellite will break into 26 pieces as it gets closer to Earth. The odds of it hitting someone anywhere on the planet are 1 in 3,200. The heaviest piece to hit the ground will be about 350 pounds, but no one has ever been hit by falling space junk in the past.

NASA expects to give the public more detailed information early next week. For now, all continents except Antarctica could be hit by satellite debris.

©2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Mid-October, end of September, next week ... :?
Pretty soon, now, they'll be saying it came down Wednesday.

Huge Defunct Satellite Falling to Earth Faster Than Expected
Space.com | Tariq Malik | 2011 Sept 16

Solar Activity Spells Doom for NASA Satellite
Discovery News | Ian O'Neill | 2011 Sept 16
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
Beyond
500 Gigaderps
Posts: 6889
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2009 11:09 am
Location: BEYONDER LAND

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by Beyond » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:21 am

Wednesday? Wednesday is Prince Spaghetti Day :!: If some of that space junk comes down and hits your noodle, it's going to ruin the whole theme of the day :!: :lol:
To find the Truth, you must go Beyond.

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:40 am

Beyond wrote:Wednesday is Prince Spaghetti Day
  • Click to play embedded YouTube video.
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
alter-ego
Serendipitous Sleuthhound
Posts: 1120
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2008 4:51 am
Location: Redmond, WA

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by alter-ego » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:46 am

bystander wrote: ...
NASA expects to give the public more detailed information early next week. For now, all continents except Antarctica could be hit by satellite debris.

©2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Mid-October, end of September, next week ... :?
Pretty soon, now, they'll be saying it came down Wednesday.
I found the trend was indeed to reenter early. As of yesterday, I estimate reentry somewhere between 9/22 and 9/25. It's been published that the best reentry predictions can get is ~10% of the time to reentry, i.e. if the prediction is 10 days, the uncertainty is about 1day. If it is 20 hours, then the uncertainty is about 2 hours. As UARS gets closer to reentry, NASA accelerates the updates.
A pessimist is nothing more than an experienced optimist

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Sat Sep 17, 2011 3:53 am

bystander wrote:Mid-October, end of September, next week ... :?
Pretty soon, now, they'll be saying it came down Wednesday.
It's a joke people! Look where the link takes you. :roll:
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
alter-ego
Serendipitous Sleuthhound
Posts: 1120
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2008 4:51 am
Location: Redmond, WA

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by alter-ego » Sat Sep 17, 2011 4:03 am

bystander wrote:
bystander wrote:Mid-October, end of September, next week ... :?
Pretty soon, now, they'll be saying it came down Wednesday.
It's a joke people! Look where the link takes you. :roll:
No worries, I realized it was a joke - mine was not :ssmile:
A pessimist is nothing more than an experienced optimist

Jones29
Asternaut
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:17 am

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by Jones29 » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:30 am

Lots of photos are everywhere! Well, nice!

I have read an article which discusses about UARS satellite pieces have 1 in 3,200 chance of hitting Earth. As I am browsing this article, I find it creepy for the fact that it might be possible to target our country. Let us pray for our people’s safety as well as it disappears for no one would be hurt.

I just want to share a preview about this. Here it goes.

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite was in Earth's orbit for 20 years. The satellite arrived at what National Aeronautics and Space Administration called "the end of a productive scientific life" a full six years back. UARS is expected to return to Earth soon. By Saturday, the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere.

Troy
Asternaut
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:28 am
Location: NY

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by Troy » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:25 am

Oh, I hope it will be done and don't fall into ruins. LOL

User avatar
neufer
Vacationer at Tralfamadore
Posts: 18805
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:57 pm
Location: Alexandria, Virginia

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by neufer » Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:18 pm

Shuttle Columbia accident cut plans to retrieve now-falling satellite
Art Neuendorffer

Troy
Asternaut
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:28 am
Location: NY

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by Troy » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:07 am

neufer wrote:Shuttle Columbia accident cut plans to retrieve -now-falling satellite
Thanks, this news is detail. I can new deeply and can think in the future how human deal with the space junk? May use a huge laser beam to wipe out them. :mrgreen:

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:03 pm

NASA UARS Update #16 | 2011 Sept 24 10:37 am CDT
NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite entered the atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of the United States. The precise re-entry time and location of any debris impacts are still being determined. NASA is not aware of any reports of injury or property damage.

NASA will conduct a media telecon at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the re-entry. The telecon will be streamed live at nasa.gov/newsaudio.
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
Beyond
500 Gigaderps
Posts: 6889
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2009 11:09 am
Location: BEYONDER LAND

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by Beyond » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:08 pm

Gads :!: I was up then, and i still missed it. :!: Oh-well, maybe next time :?:
To find the Truth, you must go Beyond.

User avatar
bystander
Apathetic Retiree
Posts: 21577
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:06 pm
Location: Oklahoma

Re: Space: Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon

Post by bystander » Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:45 pm

NASA UARS Final Update | 2011 Sept 27
NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth at 12 a.m. EDT (0400 GMT), as Friday, Sept. 23, turned to Saturday, Sept. 24 on the United States east coast. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California has determined the satellite entered the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean at 14.1 degrees south latitude and 189.8 degrees east longitude (170.2 west longitude). This location is over a broad, remote ocean area in the Southern Hemisphere, far from any major land mass. The debris field is located between 300 miles and 800 miles downrange, or generally northeast of the re-entry point. NASA is not aware of any possible debris sightings from this geographic area.
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

User avatar
neufer
Vacationer at Tralfamadore
Posts: 18805
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:57 pm
Location: Alexandria, Virginia

UARS plunges down near Pago Pago

Post by neufer » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:45 pm

bystander wrote:NASA UARS Final Update | 2011 Sept 27
NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth at 12 a.m. EDT (0400 GMT), as Friday, Sept. 23, turned to Saturday, Sept. 24 on the United States east coast. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California has determined the satellite entered the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean at (14.1° S, 170.2° W). This location is over a broad, remote ocean area in the Southern Hemisphere, far from any major land mass. The debris field is located between 300 miles and 800 miles downrange, or generally northeast of the re-entry point. NASA is not aware of any possible debris sightings from this geographic area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_samoa wrote: <<American Samoa (14.3° S, 170.7° W) is an unincorporated territory of the United States located in the South Pacific Ocean, southeast of the sovereign state of Samoa (formerly known as Western Samoa). American Samoa and Pago Pago International Airport had historic significance with the U.S. Apollo Program. The astronaut crews of Apollo 10, 12, 13, 14, and 17 were retrieved a few hundred miles from Pago Pago and transported by helicopter to the airport prior to being flown to Honolulu on C-141 Starlifter military aircraft.

In 1938, the noted aviator Ed Musick and his crew died on the Pan American World Airways S-42 Samoan Clipper over Pago Pago, while on a survey flight to Auckland, New Zealand. Sometime after take-off, the aircraft experienced trouble, and Musick turned it back toward Pago Pago. While the crew began dumping fuel in preparation for an emergency landing, a spark in the fuel pump caused an explosion that tore the aircraft apart in mid-air.>>
Art Neuendorffer

Post Reply