UT: Astronomy Without A Telescope – The Edge Of Significance

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UT: Astronomy Without A Telescope – The Edge Of Significance

Post by bystander » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:19 pm

Astronomy Without A Telescope – The Edge Of Significance
Universe Today | Steve Nerlich | 2011 Sept 17
Some recent work on Type 1a supernovae velocities suggests that the universe may not be as isotropic as our current standard model (LambdaCDM) requires it to be.
The standard model requires the universe to be isotropic and homogeneous – meaning it can be assumed to have the same underlying structure and principles operating throughout and it looks measurably the same in every direction. Any significant variation from this assumption means the standard model can’t adequately describe the current universe or its evolution. So any challenge to the assumption of isotropy and homogeneity, also known as the cosmological principle, is big news.

Of course since you are hearing about such a paradigm-shifting finding within this humble column, rather than as a lead article in Nature, you can safely assume that the science is not quite bedded down yet. The Union2 data set of 557 Type 1a supernovae, released in 2010, is allegedly the source of this latest challenge to the cosmological principle – even though the data set was released with the unequivocal statement that the flat concordance LambdaCDM model remains an excellent fit to the Union2 data.

Anyhow, in 2010 Antoniou and Perivolaropoulos ran a hemisphere comparison – essentially comparing supernova velocities in the northern hemisphere of the sky with the southern hemisphere. These hemispheres were defined using galactic coordinates, where the orbital plane of the Milky Way is set as the equator and the Sun, which is more or less on the galactic orbital plane, is the zero point.
Antoniou and Perivolaropoulos’ analysis determined a preferred axis of anisotropy – with more supernovae showing higher than average velocities towards a point in the northern hemisphere (within the same ranges of redshift). This suggests that a part of the northern sky represents a part of the universe that is expanding outwards with a greater acceleration than elsewhere. If correct, this means the universe is neither isotropic nor homogeneous.

However, they note that their statistical analysis does not necessarily correspond with statistically significant anisotropy and then seek to strengthen their finding by appealing to other anomalies in cosmic microwave background data which also show anisotropic tendencies. So this seems to be a case of looking at number of unrelated findings with common trends – that in isolation are not statistically significant – and then arguing that if you put all these together they somehow achieve a consolidated significance that they did not possess in isolation.

More recently, Cai and Tuo ran much the same hemispherical analysis and, not surprisingly, got much the same result. They then tested whether these data favoured one dark energy model over another – which they didn’t. Nonetheless, on the strength of this, Cai and Tuo gained a write up in the Physics Arxiv blog under the heading More Evidence for a Preferred Direction in Spacetime – which seems a bit of a stretch since it’s really just the same evidence that has been separately analysed for another purpose.

It’s reasonable to doubt that anything has been definitively resolved at this point. The weight of current evidence still favours an isotropic and homogeneous universe. While there’s no harm in mucking about at the edge of statistical significance with whatever limited data are available – such fringe findings may be quickly washed away when new data comes in – e.g. more Type 1a supernovae velocity measures from a new sky survey – or a higher resolution view of the cosmic microwave background from the Planck spacecraft. Stay tuned.

Spectra and Light Curves of Six Type Ia Supernovae at 0.511 < z < 1.12 and the Union2 Compilation - R. Amanullah et al Searching for a Cosmological Preferred Axis: Union2 Data Analysis and Comparison with Other Probes - I. Antoniou, L. Perivolaropoulos Direction Dependence of the Deceleration Parameter - Ronggen Cai, Zhongliang Tuo
  • arXiv.org > astro-ph > arXiv:1109.0941 > 05 Sep 2011 (v1), 10 Sep 2011 (v4)

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TR: More Evidence for a Preferred Direction in Spacetime

Post by bystander » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:26 pm

More Evidence for a Preferred Direction in Spacetime
Technology Review | The Physics arXiv Blog | kfc | 2011 Sept 07
The evidence is growing that some parts of the Universe are more special than others.

One of the cornerstones of modern astrophysics is the cosmological principle. This is the idea that observers on Earth have no privileged view of the Universe and that the laws of physics must be the same everywhere.

Many observations back up this idea. For example, the Universe looks more or less the same in every direction, having the same distribution of galaxies everywhere we look.

In recent years, however, some cosmologists have begun to suspect that the principle may be wrong. They point to evidence from the study of Type 1 supernovas, which appear to be accelerating away from us, indicating the Universe is not just expanding but accelerating away from us. The curious thing is that this acceleration is not uniform in all directions. Instead, the universe seems to be expanding faster in some directions than others.

But how good is this evidence? Is it possible that the preferred direction is a statistical mirage that will disappear with the right kind of data analysis.

Rong-Gen Cai and Zhong-Liang Tuo at the Key Laboratory of Frontiers in Theoretical Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing have re-examined the data from 557 supernovas throughout the Universe and recrunched the numbers.

Today, they confirm that the preferred axis is real. According to their calculations, the direction of greatest acceleration is in the constellation of Vulpecula in the Northern hemisphere. That's consistent with other analyses and also with other evidence such as other data showing a preferred axis in the cosmic microwave background.

That will force cosmologists to an uncomfortable conclusion: the cosmological principle must be wrong.

But it also raises exciting questions: why does the Universe have a preferred axis and how do should we account for it in our models of the cosmos?
Know the quiet place within your heart and touch the rainbow of possibility; be
alive to the gentle breeze of communication, and please stop being such a jerk.
— Garrison Keillor

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