UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

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bystander
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UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by bystander » Wed Jun 06, 2012 9:08 pm

Humans on Mars by 2023?
Universe Today | Nancy Atkinson | 2012 June 06
Click to play embedded YouTube video.
Reality TV goes to Mars! Dutch entrepreneur Bas Lansdorp is leading a group visionaries and businesspeople who want to send four humans to Mars by 2023, and they say they can achieve their goal at an estimated cost of $6 billion USD. How can they do it? By building it into a global media spectacle. And oh, by the way, this will be a one-way trip.

“Who would be able to look away from an adventure such as this one?” asks Lansdorp in his bio on the Mars One website. “Who wouldn’t be compelled to watch, talk about, get involved in the biggest undertaking mankind has ever made? The entire world will be able to follow this giant leap from the start; from the very first astronaut selections to the established, independent village years later. The media focus that comes with the public’s attention opens pathways to sponsors and investors.”

As far as the one-way mission (a concept that Universe Today has written about extensively) the Mars One website notes, “this is no way excludes the possibility of a return flight at some point in the future.”

The difference between this mission and the one proposed by Jim McLane back in 2008 is that McLane wanted to send just one person to Mars.

However, the Mars One group says that once the first trip is successful and Mars becomes developed, it will be “much easier to build the returning rocket there.”

In a Q&A on reddit, Lansdorp said the biggest challenge will be financing.

“We have estimated, and discussed with our suppliers that it will cost about 6 billion US$ to get the first crew of four people to Mars. We plan to organize the biggest media event ever around our mission. When we launch people to Mars and when they land, the whole world will watch. After that a lot of people will be very interested to see how ‘our people on Mars’ are doing.”

But the big challenge is that the biggest expenditures will be building the equipment before they send people to Mars. “This is why we are building a very strong technical case now. If we can convince sponsors and investors that this will really happen, then we believe that we can convince them to help us finance it,” Lansdorp said.

As far as technologies, Mars One expects to use a SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy as a launch vehicle, a transit vehicle/space habitat built by Thales Alenia Space, a variant on the SpaceX Dragon as the lander, an inflatable habitat built by ILC Dover, a rover vehicle by MDA Space Missions, and Mars spacesuits made by Paragon.

The project website says “no new technologies” will be needed, but does any space agency or company really have a good handle on providing providing ample air, oxygen, energy, food and water for extended (lifetimes?) periods of time? Instead, the website provides more details on FAQ’s like, What will the astronauts do on Mars? Why should we go to Mars? Is it safe to live on Mars? How does the Mars base communicate with Earth? And the Mars One team emphasizes that this can be done with current technology. However, no one really knows how to land large payloads on Mars yet, so at least some development will be required there.

Who will go? Later this year they will begin to take applications and eventually 40 people will take part in a rigid, decade-long training program (which sounds very expensive) where the ‘contestants” will essentially be voted off the island to get to the final four astronauts. The selection and training process will be broadcast via television and online to public, with viewers voting on the final selected four.

It’s an intriguing proposition, but one filled with technological hurdles. I’ve just finished reading Ben Bova’s “Mars,” so I’m also thinking the Mars One folks will need to be on the lookout for micrometeorite swarms.
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Humans on Mars by 2023 (+ 31)?

Post by neufer » Thu Jun 07, 2012 1:28 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Martian_Chronicles wrote:
<<The Martian Chronicles is a 1950 science fiction short story collection by Ray Bradbury that chronicles the colonization of Mars by humans fleeing from a troubled and eventually atomically devastated Earth, and the conflict between aboriginal Martians and the new colonists. The overall structure is in three parts, punctuated by two catastrophes: the near-extinction of the Martians and the parallel near-extinction of the human race.

The first third (set in the period from January 1999—April 2000) details the attempts of the Earthmen to reach Mars, and the various ways in which the Martians keep them from returning. In the crucial story, "—And the Moon be Still as Bright", it is revealed by the fourth exploratory expedition that the Martians have all but perished in a plague caused by germs brought by one of the previous expeditions. This unexpected development sets the stage for the second act (December 2001—November 2005), in which humans from Earth colonize the deserted planet, occasionally having contact with the few surviving Martians, but for the most part preoccupied with making Mars a second Earth. However, as war on Earth threatens, most of the settlers pack up and return home. A global nuclear war ensues, cutting off contact between Mars and Earth. The third act (December 2005—October 2026) deals with the aftermath of the war, and concludes with the prospect of the few surviving humans becoming the new Martians, a prospect already foreshadowed in "—And the Moon be Still as Bright", and which allows the book to return to its beginning. A 1997 edition of the book advances all the dates by 31 years (thus running from 2030 to 2057).>>
Art Neuendorffer

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by BMAONE23 » Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:06 pm

I don't see governments being involved with much more space/solar system exploration in the near term due to the cost of such and the state of the world economies. I believe that any future Moon Missions and even beyond the moon will be done through private enterprise and not government funded expeditions. At this point, any samples gathered by such will be placed on the public market and sold to the highest bidder to recover costs.
Moon Rocks for sale $250,000 per gram
Mars Rocks for sale $500,000 per gram
Asteroid for sale $??????
The new gold rush will be on.

Want to buy mineral rights to an asteroid?

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by Chris Peterson » Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:21 pm

BMAONE23 wrote:I don't see governments being involved with much more space/solar system exploration in the near term due to the cost of such and the state of the world economies. I believe that any future Moon Missions and even beyond the moon will be done through private enterprise and not government funded expeditions. At this point, any samples gathered by such will be placed on the public market and sold to the highest bidder to recover costs.
Moon Rocks for sale $250,000 per gram
Mars Rocks for sale $500,000 per gram
Asteroid for sale $??????
The new gold rush will be on.

Want to buy mineral rights to an asteroid?
I doubt there is a market greater than a few million dollars for Moon rocks and Mars rocks. They aren't going to be thousands of dollars a gram if they're abundant. And it's hard to imagine profitably mining an asteroid anytime in the near future.

I think that private companies will start exploiting the near Earth environment (as they have already done with much satellite technology) in new ways. But exploration? I think not, unless it's as private contractors to governments. There's just no profit in it, and that's when governments have to get the job done.
Chris

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by Doum » Fri Jun 08, 2012 2:32 pm

There is an enormous amount of money to make on the moon alone. But the first investment to make is big. Once install on the moon (Infrastructure) then it will start to grow by itself. So the biggest problem is to find the money to start because it will take a long time before this investment start to fructifiate. (Who want to invest?)

The advantage of going to the moon first is the proximity. By sending radio control vehicule to excavate, collect ore, smelter using sun to process ore, etc... and robot to fix vehicule and do other particular job will be relatively easy (Because it is radio control from earth and it is a 2 second delay on communication).

No need to send human because they need a base, fuel, water, food, heavy radiation protection, health,rescue ... and that is very costly.

So just send vehicule and robot and start building and extract mineral. The worker remain here on earth (cost less if they work here on earth).

Mining asteroid or going to mars is the next step and should start from the moon.

Of course, if we dont need any of those ore then there are no reason to do any of this. :) :mrgreen:

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by BMAONE23 » Fri Jun 08, 2012 5:12 pm

Chris Peterson wrote:
BMAONE23 wrote:I don't see governments being involved with much more space/solar system exploration in the near term due to the cost of such and the state of the world economies. I believe that any future Moon Missions and even beyond the moon will be done through private enterprise and not government funded expeditions. At this point, any samples gathered by such will be placed on the public market and sold to the highest bidder to recover costs.
Moon Rocks for sale $250,000 per gram
Mars Rocks for sale $500,000 per gram
Asteroid for sale $??????
The new gold rush will be on.

Want to buy mineral rights to an asteroid?
I doubt there is a market greater than a few million dollars for Moon rocks and Mars rocks. They aren't going to be thousands of dollars a gram if they're abundant. And it's hard to imagine profitably mining an asteroid anytime in the near future.

I think that private companies will start exploiting the near Earth environment (as they have already done with much satellite technology) in new ways. But exploration? I think not, unless it's as private contractors to governments. There's just no profit in it, and that's when governments have to get the job done.
I must disagree with you on this one Chris


It would appear that $422,500 is quite costly for 1/5 gram though the 10oz for $1,000,000 is $100,000 per oz. All you need to do to maintain the price is Not flood the market.

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by BMAONE23 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:13 am

After all, if the Private Sector drives the new space race, Private Enterprise will ensure that it is a For Profit undertaking

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Re: UT: Humans on Mars by 2023?

Post by Chris Peterson » Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:35 am

BMAONE23 wrote:After all, if the Private Sector drives the new space race, Private Enterprise will ensure that it is a For Profit undertaking
It will try. There's no guarantee it will succeed.

I don't think private enterprise will find either exploration or mineral exploitation to be profitable space enterprises anytime in the near future. There may be some space-based manufacturing opportunities, but I think most of the profit will be in designing and placing various satellites, and ferrying people and things up and down (including tourists), mainly under contract.
Chris

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